lake powell water level forecast 2022

But it is concerning. The model is based on weather conditions over a thirty-year span. We maintain a strict editorial firewall between our funders and our journalism. Releases from Glen Canyon Dam can also fluctuate beyond scheduled releases when called upon to respond to unscheduled power outages or power system emergencies. Federal and state water managers have watched the water level in Lake Powell closely this year. Sunday, February 26, 2023 12:00:00 AM Level is 178.87 feet Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. Forecasts are calling for 4.1 million acre-feet of water to flow into Lake Powell from April to July this year, but water managers are obligated to release more than 7 million acre-feet out of the lake. She also sits on the Upper Colorado River Commission. Lake Powell is at low for water year and down 9.26 feet from the high. Lund said he expects water use in the basin to have "capped out," but the reservoir can't continue to supply water at the pace in which the area consumes it. Electricity produced at Lake Powells Glen Canyon Dam, which serves some 50 Colorado utilities, and dozens of others in the Colorado River Basin, has been cut in half by the 20-year drought, with power levels over the next two years projected to be 47% lower than normal, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. In the image acquired on May 1, 2004, the reservoirs northwestern branch is isolated from the main reservoir; the shallow water upstream could not crest raised areas in the lakebed. Its not a hypothetical situation anymore.. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell's water levels. Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window), Wind affected on the west and south facing aspects of the Gore Range seen on, April 7, 2022, near Vail. google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; 15 Day Weather Forecast Despite those releases, Powell dropped below 3,525 last month, hitting 3,523, another historic drought landmark. Were an initiative of theCenter for Environmental Journalismat the University of Colorado Boulder. Combined with water withdrawals that many believe are not sustainable, the drought has caused a dramatic drop in Lake Powells water level. The last couple months have steadied out a little bit, Cody Moser, a senior hydrologist with NOAA forecast center, said during a recent web briefing to review the most recent report. The forecast for water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell, issued on January 5, 2023, by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, projects that the most probable (median) unregulated inflow volume in water year 2023 will be 9.5 maf (99 percent of average). But the region is battling a multidecade drought with rain harder to come by. The peak inflow to Lake Powell occurs in mid- to late spring, as the winter snow in the Rocky Mountains melts. Becky Mitchell is director of the Colorado Water Conservation Board, the states lead water planning agency. As of Wednesday, the water level was 3,524.22 feet. Please contact the Operations Group via e-mail at ResourceMgr@usbr.gov for additional information. View CFS Last 14 Measurements Lake Powell is down -1.03 feet over these measurements Averages for February 27th Last 10 February 27th's data records As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. Surface Water Elevation (feet) Lake Powell End of Month Elevations1 . a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and That reference period is updated once a decade; it now begins in the 1990s. Even Less water forecast to flow into Lake Powell this year, report says May NOAA runoff report predicts even less water will flow into Lake Powell this year than previously forecasted. 175 0 obj <>/Filter/FlateDecode/ID[<68753438768B134985CC80C922059B30>]/Index[159 34]/Info 158 0 R/Length 84/Prev 199590/Root 160 0 R/Size 193/Type/XRef/W[1 2 1]>>stream We are 41% through the Water Year. google_ad_height = 600; The Colorado River flows in from the east around Mille Crag Bend and is swallowed by the lake. LAKE POWELL, Utah Lake Powell water levels continue to drop, and a new report released by the Bureau of Reclamation projects the possibility America's . Last July, to protect the 3,525 buffer zone, Reclamation ordered emergency water releases from three reservoirs in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The Upper Basin reservoirs have already provided 161,000 acre-feet of water pursuant to the imminent need provision of the Drought Response Operations Agreement, including 36,000 acre-feet from Blue Mesa Reservoir in Colorado. The lake is set to reach. Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. But the declining water already has drained some of the fun, he said. The probable minimum and probable maximum model runs are conducted simultaneously in January, April, August, and October, or when necessary to incorporate changing conditions. "As a result of this update, the median water year 2022 inflow forecast into Lake Powell decreased by 800,000 acre-feet," USBR stated in a press release distributed Thursday. Lake Mead was at elevation 1,064.30 ft. with storage of 8.753 maf or 34 percent of capacity. Gas Prices on Lake "We might get lucky with the weather, but the idea of the system recovering is really hard unless you reduce water use in that basin," Lund told Newsweek. A visual history of the water level of each of our Lake Powell trips over the past three years. New 1991-2020 Averages being used this year. If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us. Newsweek reached out to the U.S. Geological Survey for comment. Based on the current forecast of 10.44 maf unregulated inflow for water year 2023, the February 24-Month Study projects Lake Powell elevation will end water year 2023 near 3555.45 feet with approximately 7.47 maf in storage (32 percent of capacity). Lake Powell has fallen victim to excessive water use as a 20-year drought parches the region. The picture was much different 59 years ago, when the giant storage reservoir on the Colorado River was filling, its electricity helping power the West and the revenue from its power sales helping fund endangered fish protection programs across the Colorado River Basin. Melissa joined KNAU's team in 2015 to report on science, health, and the environment. The forecast isnt great, said Kyle Whitaker, Colorado River Manager for the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District, one of the largest diverters of water in the headwaters region of the river. In the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an ancient enemy: prolonged drought in the American Southwest. A century of river flow records combined with an additional four to five centuries of tree-ring data show that the droughts over the past two decades were not unusual; longer and more severe droughts are a regular part of the climate variability in that part of the continent. Water availability, appropriate timing of releases, and impacts on other resources are all being considered as the 2022 Plan is being drafted.. The most recent data is from Monday, February 27th, 2023. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for elevations above 4000.Heavy accumulations of 10-20 are forecast above 6000, 3-8 to 4500 and several inches to valley floors. Lake Powell is currently 390.33 feet deep at the dam. The Bureau of Reclamation's most recent projections show Lake Mead dropping to 1,033.4 feet in elevation by the end of 2023, about 14 feet lower than the reservoir's current level. The Colorado River flows from the Rocky Mountains in Colorado through the southwestern United States. In March 2022, it fell below a critical level of 3,525 feet above sea levelthe lake's target elevation. The Colorado Sun is a journalist-owned, award-winning news outlet based in Denver that strives to cover all of Colorado so that our state our community can better understand itself. Arizona Public Radio | Your Source for NPR News, PublishedFebruary 28, 2022 at 5:00 AM MST. The elevations listed in the August 2022 24-Month Study report reflected the projected physical elevations at each reservoir after implementing operations as described for water year 2023 tier determination purposes. Along its route, the river passes through an elaborate water-management system designed to tame the yearly floods from spring snowmelt and to provide a reliable supply of water for residents as far away as California. A Tier 3 shortage would impact the amount of . Wang suggests updating the reference period more frequently or using the last 20 years as the baseline. Lake Powells side branches had all retreated compared to the previous years extents. Low water effects to launch ramps and services top Lake Powell Elevation (05/18/2022) 3526.05 ft Stay in the know! A powerful winter storm will enter AZ early Tuesday night with rain and snow showers increasing across the region after midnight. Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. According to Reclamation, there is a 27% chance that Powell will still stop generating electricity completely over the next four years. U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation. In the early years of this image series, water levels began to drop. According to Jay Lund, vice director for the Center for Watershed Sciences and a professor at the University of California, the long-term average use in the lower Colorado River Basin exceeds the long-term flow of water, meaning the only solution is to "substantially reduce water use" in the basin. By 2002, the lake level had dropped far enough that the exposed canyon walls created a pale outline around the lake. Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. A Colorado River flows drop and tensions rise, water interests struggle Can the Ancient Humpback Chub Hang On in Todays Grand Canyon? Some Arizona cities have implemented drought management plans to conserve water, but the area continues to use water at a rate that negates Lake Powell's recovery. Across most of the streams and rivers of the Upper Basin, forecasted runoff ranges from very poor (50% of average) to mediocre (80% of average).. Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizonas Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. Shifting the period of record decreased the average unregulated inflow 1.20 maf. @) .=] j Bvq2 4=B4[YCO@p/e`5[ #("A3?M|Cd(Jje(B_il:.\7m=.{CZ&&q5O}NOB6jGptUEN1Dh'6dW30oLqmt1W#F/qy<5aJ5 LuQmB(JD'4z`9q#v k[ T (At normal water levels, both rivers are essentially part of the reservoir.) "These reservoirs are huge," Lund said. It can store about five times the average annual flow. Upper Colorado Region Water Operations: Current Status: Lake Powell, Spring Snow Brings Moisture to Colorado Front Range, NASA Goddard Space From there, a swing to the northeast delivers boats into Lake Powell's main artery. The August 2022 24-Month Study modeled 2023 and 2024 operations at Lakes Powell and Mead as if the 0.480 maf had been delivered to Lake Mead for operating tier/condition purposes both for the U.S. Lower Basin and for Mexico. Click for . %%EOF We need to get ourselves prepared," he says. swE{,,;o0U|+/ :u7j@;pGh00gr\j30sAD+ ON 9 Together with the release of more water into Lake Powell from an upstream dam, the decision will keep the lake at a level at which it can continue generating hydropower for the next 12 months. Reclamation will continue to carefully monitor hydrologic and operational conditions and assess the need for additional responsive actions and/or changes to operations. The critical issue is how to maintain the lake at 3,525, which marks an elevation that is the top of the liquid buffer zone designed to protect the lakes mighty electricity turbines. (2007). n$L{Z. 192 0 obj <>stream The 30-year average was updated in October 2022 from 1981 through 2010 to 1991 through 2020. At the beginning of the series in 1999, water levels in Lake Powell were relatively high, and the water was a clear, dark blue. Gas Prices on Lake Get the most up to date information on Lake Powell's water levels and the status of launch ramps from the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and more with the links and pages below. 04:18 . This includes directly interviewing sources and research / analysis of primary source documents. Detailed Map of Powell //-->, Printable Version "Its always good to plan for the worst, right? As the forecast season progresses, More by Chris Outcalt, Got a story tip? google_ad_format = "160x600_as"; Based on current inflow forecasts, the current projected end of water year 2023 total Colorado Basin reservoir storage is approximately 20.93 maf (36 percent of total system capacity). hVmO0+_'"Bi?H!R`Mkwj3#tq@x k8,Q\yDIU>H That projection is about 12 feet higher than the 2023 end-of-year mark in the bureau's forecast from December. We are 37% through the Water Year. However, these responses can have a noticeable impact on the river downstream of Glen Canyon Dam. Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. He began his journalism career in New Hampshire, then moved West and became a reporter at the Lafayette News. She can be reached at 720-398-6474, via email atjerd@wateredco.orgor @jerd_smith. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. Few expected to ever see this drop in hydropower production, let alone consider what to do if Glen Canyon were to cease electricity production entirely. Human actions created the Salton Sea, Californias largest lake heres Scientists studying water supply focus on weeks following peak snowpack. He said the soil moisture conditions were still well below normal across western Colorado, particularly in the southwest part of the state. It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert . In order to restore Lake Powell's levels, one expert said people must conserve water in the Colorado River's lower basin. Reclamation will also ensure all appropriate consultation with Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico, other federal agencies, water users and non-governmental organizations with respect to implementation of these monthly and annual operations. google_ad_channel ="2397569894"; water-data.com LakePowell Water Database . To view the current inflow forecast relative to past inflows, click on Lake Powell Inflow Forecast. An acre-foot is the amount of water needed to fill one acre of land to a height of one foot. google_color_url = "426C95"; Significant amounts of snowfall over the winter of 20102011 meant more water for Lake Powell, and this effect lasted into the spring of 2012. The sediment-filled Colorado River appeared green-brown. Wednesday snow and wind will be heavy at times leading to difficult if not impossible travel. In addition to daily scheduled fluctuations for power generation, the instantaneous releases from Glen Canyon Dam may also fluctuate to provide 40 megawatts (MW) of system regulation. At the beginning of water year 2023, total system storage in the Colorado River Basin was 19.54 maf (33 percent of 58.48 maf total system capacity). Sunlight brightens plateaus and southeast-facing slopes, casting shadows on the northern and western faces of the rugged landscape. In July 2021, water levels on the lake fell to the lowest point since 1969 and have continued dropping. In July 2022, the lake reached a historic low of 1,040 feet above sea level. https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294, https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196, USGS site #09180500 - Colorado River near Cisco, UT, USGS site #09315000 - Green River at Green River, UT, USGS site #09379500 - San Juan River near Bluff, UT, USGS site #09380000 - Colorado River at Lees Ferry, AZ, Snowpack Conditions Upper Colorado Region Above Lake Powell, Lake Powell Inflow Forecast April-July Inflow Forecast, Current Water Year Inflow Forecast Monthly Outlooks, Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program, LTEMP - Long-Term Experimental & Management Plan, Report to Congress - Operations of Glen Canyon Dam - Water Year 2015-2016, National Park Service Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, National Park Service Grand Canyon National Park, U.S. Lake Powell is so low that it is nearing a dead pool, in which water levels aren't high enough to deliver water downstream. 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